With the IPO market stirring back to life after a long slumber, we sat down with our SaaS and software expert, Vijay Raina, to dissect the landscape of potential public offerings for 2026. A specialist in enterprise technology with deep insights into software architecture, Vijay offers a unique perspective on the companies poised to make their debut.
This discussion delves into the critical signals that mark a company as IPO-ready, moving beyond simple revenue figures to explore the operational maturity and strategic positioning required for a successful listing. We’ll examine the contrasting journeys of emerging disruptors versus established giants in capital-intensive fields like space tech, and unpack the specific hurdles facing U.K. fintech challengers as they strive for profitability. The conversation also highlights how niche market focus can be a powerful differentiator for AI developers and explores the unique dynamics driving massive investment in the defense tech sector. Finally, we compare different pre-IPO funding strategies and what they might signal for a company’s future on the public market.
The article highlights Databricks as a “very likely” IPO candidate with a $134 billion valuation. Beyond its impressive revenue growth, what other key business milestones or operational metrics signal its readiness for a public offering, and what does its preparation process likely look like at this stage?
Absolutely, and with Databricks, it’s a textbook case of a company hitting all the right notes for a public debut. The explosive revenue growth—over 55% year over year to a $4.8 billion run rate—is the headline, but what really gets public market investors excited are the fundamentals underneath. Look at their net retention, which is above 140%. That figure is just phenomenal; it tells you that not only are they keeping their customers, but those same customers are spending significantly more over time. Even more critically, the company has been free cash flow positive for over a year. That’s the holy grail; it proves the business model is self-sustaining and not just burning cash to grow. At this stage, their preparation is all about institutional readiness—solidifying their board, perfecting their S-1 filing, and running countless drills on quarterly reporting. With sophisticated public market investors like Fidelity and J.P. Morgan already in their cap table, you can be sure those conversations are well underway.
You’ve identified both K2 Space, with its rapid fundraising, and the giant SpaceX as potential IPOs. How do the investor expectations and go-to-market strategies differ for a newer, fast-scaling company like K2 versus an established behemoth like SpaceX within the capital-intensive space tech sector?
It’s a completely different ballgame for those two, even though they operate in the same universe. For a young company like K2 Space, which was only founded in 2022, the story is all about potential and execution on a new frontier. They’ve been an absolute fundraising machine, pulling in over $400 million since 2024, which shows immense investor confidence. Their go-to-market strategy is focused on proving their technology and locking in foundational contracts, like the $500 million in deals they’ve already signed. Public investors will be betting on their ability to scale that initial success into a dominant market position. SpaceX, on the other hand, is a proven entity with an estimated $15 billion in 2025 revenue. For them, an IPO isn’t about proving a concept; it’s about funding unprecedented ambition and providing liquidity for early backers. The investor expectation isn’t just growth, but sustained, profitable dominance and the successful expansion of ventures like Starlink. Their strategy is about managing their colossal scale and communicating a vision that justifies a potential $1.5 trillion valuation.
The report mentions two U.K. fintechs, Revolut and Monzo, as “very likely” IPOs. Considering Revolut’s $75 billion valuation and Monzo’s leadership changes over IPO timing, what are the primary hurdles these challenger banks must overcome to prove their long-term profitability to public market investors?
For both Revolut and Monzo, the core challenge is shifting the narrative from user acquisition to sustainable profitability. They’ve been incredibly successful at attracting customers—Revolut has over 65 million and Monzo is at 12.2 million—but the public markets are unforgiving and demand a clear path to consistent, long-term profit. A major hurdle for Revolut is regulatory; securing its full U.K. banking license is a critical step that investors will see as a de-risking event before a major listing. For Monzo, the recent leadership shake-up over IPO timing shows just how sensitive this transition is internally. They need to demonstrate that their impressive revenue, over $1.35 billion, and recent annual profit aren’t just one-off events but the start of a stable, profitable business model. Public investors will scrutinize their unit economics, customer lifetime value, and their ability to cross-sell higher-margin products beyond basic banking.
AI model developer Cohere is listed as a “probable” IPO candidate with a focus on enterprise and government clients. Could you elaborate on how this specific niche differentiates its value proposition from competitors and what key performance indicators it must showcase to justify its $7 billion valuation to the public?
Cohere’s strategy is incredibly smart because it sidesteps the crowded consumer-facing AI race and targets a market with deep pockets and specific needs: enterprise and government. This focus on “sovereign and secure AI” is a powerful differentiator. Large organizations, especially in finance like the Royal Bank of Canada or in government, have immense data security and privacy concerns. They can’t just plug into a generic, public-facing model. Cohere’s value proposition is built around providing powerful AI that can be deployed securely within a company’s own environment. To justify that $7 billion valuation, they’ll need to showcase more than just their tech. Key performance indicators will include the growth of their annual recurring revenue, which was recently at $150 million, the size and length of their enterprise contracts, and customer case studies demonstrating significant ROI. They need to prove that their niche is not just a niche, but a massive, defensible, and highly profitable market segment.
Anduril raised a massive $2.5 billion Series G, positioning it as a “very likely” IPO candidate in defense tech. Can you walk us through the unique market drivers fueling such high investor confidence in this sector and the specific challenges a company like Anduril faces transitioning government contracts into a compelling public-market narrative?
The investor confidence in defense tech, and particularly in Anduril, is fueled by a global geopolitical climate that has put national security and military modernization at the forefront. The U.S. military is actively seeking to innovate and move away from legacy systems, creating a huge opportunity for agile tech companies. Anduril captured a staggering one-third of all venture funding in this space last year, which speaks volumes. The challenge, however, is translating the world of government contracts into a narrative that public market investors can easily understand and value. Government contracts can be long, complex, and lumpy, which is different from the predictable, recurring revenue models investors love in SaaS. Anduril’s task will be to show a clear, growing pipeline of contracts, demonstrate the stickiness of its technology within the Department of Defense, and frame its business not just as a contractor, but as a transformative technology platform poised to redefine modern warfare and defense.
The article contrasts Canva, a mature design platform with $3.3 billion in annualized revenue, with hardware-maker Nothing, which is taking an unconventional crowdfunding path. Can you break down how these two distinct approaches to pre-IPO funding and community-building might shape their respective public debuts and after-market performance?
These two approaches paint a fascinating picture of the different paths to an IPO. Canva represents the traditional, institutional route. It’s a 13-year-old mature company with a massive $3.3 billion revenue stream and 240 million monthly users. Their late-stage funding from public market investors like Fidelity is a classic pre-IPO move, essentially getting institutional buyers comfortable with the stock before it even lists. This path de-risks the debut and aims for a stable, predictable aftermarket performance driven by strong financial metrics. Nothing is taking a grassroots, community-first approach. By using crowdfunding platforms, they are building a loyal base of retail investors who are also their most passionate customers. This can create incredible brand evangelism and a built-in demand for the stock upon listing, potentially leading to a more volatile but highly energized debut. However, a retail-heavy investor base can also mean more unpredictability in the aftermarket compared to the steady hand of large institutions that would dominate Canva’s stock.
What is your forecast for the broader IPO market in 2026?
My forecast for 2026 is one of cautious but sustained optimism. After a prolonged deep freeze, we are seeing undeniable signs of a thaw. The key drivers are falling into place: public market conditions are improving, interest rates are stabilizing, and most importantly, there’s a palpable return of investor appetite for growth stories. We have a multi-year backlog of high-quality, mature private companies like the ones we’ve discussed, who have used the downturn to strengthen their fundamentals and are now ready to make their move. I don’t expect a return to the frenzy of 2021, which is healthy. Instead, I anticipate a more measured and discerning market, but one where well-prepared companies with strong metrics will find a receptive and open window for listing. It should be a year where quality truly shines.
